Three recent polls show sharply different levels of support for Florida's Amendment 3, a proposed property tax reduction that could lower bills for qualifying homeowners while reducing revenue for cities such as Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach and Golden Beach.

Support ranged from 42% to 63%, a 21-percentage-point difference. The constitutional amendment needs approval from at least 60% of voters to pass.

A Targoz Market Research poll for the James Madison Institute found 63% support, while a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey for NBC 6 and Telemundo found 55%. A St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics put support at 42%.

All three surveys were conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 7, according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

The polls also found substantial opposition and uncertainty. Targoz reported 21% opposed and 15% undecided; Mason-Dixon found 26% opposed and 19% undecided; and St. Pete Polls reported 35% opposed and 23% undecided.

Differences in how the question was presented may help explain the results. Targoz showed respondents the full ballot language, while Mason-Dixon used live telephone interviews. St. Pete Polls used a shorter description that the Sun Sentinel said did not fully reflect how the proposal would affect all homeowners.

"It's probably going to be close," Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, told the Sun Sentinel. "60% is a pretty significant threshold."

How Amendment 3 would change property taxes

Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with inflation adjustments beginning afterward.

The exemption would not apply to school property taxes.

The proposal would also reduce the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead properties from 10% to 5%. Those properties include rental housing, investment condominiums and commercial real estate.

The amendment would take effect Jan. 1, 2027. People who were not Florida residents on Dec. 31, 2026, would generally have to wait until their fifth year of homestead exemption eligibility to receive the increased exemption, subject to constitutional limitations.

The measure also includes provisions governing how local governments may use property tax revenue and procedures for additional exemptions.

Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach and Golden Beach face revenue questions

Aventura levied $24.5 million in property taxes for fiscal year 2025-26, with 23.5% coming from homesteaded residential properties, according to the Biscayne Times.

Sunny Isles Beach levied $32.7 million, with 16.1% coming from homesteaded properties. Golden Beach levied $16.3 million, with a substantially higher homestead share of 41.6%.

Those differences matter because the expanded exemption would apply to qualifying primary residences, while other provisions would affect non-homestead property assessments.

Aventura's adopted fiscal year 2026-27 budget totals $69.1 million, including $29.7 million for police, according to city budget documents.

The city receives only a portion of the property taxes collected from Aventura properties. Other taxing authorities include Miami-Dade County, the school district and regional agencies.

The Florida Association of Counties estimated that Amendment 3 could reduce Miami-Dade County revenue by $445 million, NBC 6 reported.

A separate Florida Policy Institute analysis projected recurring annual revenue losses of at least $1.41 billion across Miami-Dade County and its municipalities, according to the Biscayne Times.

The estimates cover different government entities and should not be directly compared as competing projections of the same revenue loss.

Jewett told the Sun Sentinel that governments could respond to reduced property tax collections by seeking revenue elsewhere, potentially shifting costs toward renters and businesses.

Realtors back tax relief as local officials warn of service cuts

Florida Realtors contributed $18 million to the Vote Yes on 3 campaign, WLRN reported.

The organization's CEO, Margy Grant, estimated that the proposal would save the average homeowner about $1,000 in 2027 and $1,800 in 2028. Actual savings would depend on a property's taxable value, exemptions and local tax rates.

Supporters include Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Republican Party of Florida. Opponents include the Florida Democratic Party, local elected officials and organizations representing public employees.

Sunny Isles Beach Commissioner Alex Lama expressed concern during an Aug. 14 Florida League of Cities convention in Hollywood.

"I mean, I am pro-lowering taxes, property taxes … But there's got to be a better way of going about it," Lama told Local 10.

Supporters argue that the amendment would provide financial relief to homeowners. Critics warn that reduced revenue could affect local services or lead governments to consider other taxes and fees.

Aventura early voting begins Oct. 19

Miami-Dade County early voting runs from Monday, Oct. 19, through Sunday, Nov. 1, with polls open daily from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

The Northeast Dade-Aventura Branch Library, 2930 Aventura Blvd., is among the county's 28 early voting locations.

Registered Miami-Dade voters may cast ballots at any county early voting site. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Voters can confirm locations and election information through the Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections.