South Florida's coast is watching the quietest hurricane peak in decades. The Atlantic season reached its Sept. 10 peak without a single active storm.
Basin hasn't been this quiet since 1992
It is only the third time since 1950 the basin has gone completely silent during its busiest week, according to WPLG Local 10 hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. No tropical depressions, named storms or hurricanes were spinning anywhere in the Atlantic as of Thursday, Sept. 10. The only other years to match that silence during the Sept. 7 through Sept. 14 window were 2025 and 1992.
Super El Niño is driving the calm
The Super El Niño of 2026-27 is driving the calm. Water temperatures in the Niño 3.4 monitoring region of the eastern equatorial Pacific have never been warmer for this time of year, Lowry reported. That record warmth generates extreme wind shear across the Atlantic, tearing apart tropical systems before they can organize.
Five storms formed, but none intensified
Five named storms have formed so far: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. None reached hurricane strength. Three made U.S. landfalls, the Palm Beach Post reported. Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach told the Palm Beach Post in early September that conditions remain "quite tropical-cyclone unfavorable."
First hurricane could set an all-time record
If no hurricane forms by Friday, Sept. 11, the 2026 season will set a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane, according to AccuWeather via the Naples Daily News. The previous latest dates were Sept. 11 in both 2002 and 2013. The last full season without any hurricane was 1914.
NOAA's Aug. 6 updated forecast gives a 75% chance of a below-normal season, calling for seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes. The 30-year average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Late-season storms are still possible
Forecasters warn that the quiet should not breed complacency for residents in Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach and Golden Beach.
"Especially here in South Florida where October can throw us late-season curveballs, we want to be careful not to underestimate the lone hurricane that bucks the trends," Lowry wrote Wednesday, Sept. 9.
The 1992 season offers a cautionary parallel. That year also went silent around the Sept. 10 peak but produced Hurricane Andrew, one of the worst hurricane strikes in U.S. history and the only Category 3 or stronger storm of that season. NOAA lead hurricane forecaster Matt Rosencrans warned in August that a below-normal season does not rule out devastating storms, pointing to Andrew as an example.
How South Florida residents can prepare
Sunny Isles Beach sits in Miami-Dade County evacuation Zone B, which may be ordered to evacuate if a Category 2 or stronger hurricane approaches, according to the city's June 2026 Islander newsletter. The hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with peak activity extending into late October.
Residents can sign up for Sunny Isles Beach emergency alerts at sibfl.gov/sibalert or access Miami-Dade County hurricane resources at miamidade.gov/hurricane and through the Ready MDC app.
